By now I think it's pretty clear that the stock market, the actual economy and the day-to-day reality of an average person are disconnected. While stocks are at an all-time high, is there an actual, solid bull case for the economy and financial outlook for the average folks?
Personal debt is at all-time high, delinquencies have reached 2008 levels, tons of layoffs, corporate greed & inflation is propping up revenues and profits while wages are stagnating and savings are being drained.
A lot of emphasis is put on the lower unemployment rate to justify a strong economy, but the unemployment rate doesn't take into account whether or not those jobs can actually sustain a person's living expenses and debt repayments
Talking with multiple people in different sectors, outlook for 2024 and 2025 looks pretty grim. Less revenue, budget cuts, layoffs, etc. Granted these are all smaller companies, the SP500 seems to be doing just fine.
Personally, I don't see how the situation can get better. High rates are hurting a lot of people/small businesses. A lot of house owners and renters are being crushed by the raise in housing costs. Laid off people and draining up their savings. People who made dumb purchases and got into huge loans when money was cheap are defaulting. Yet, we can't afford to lower rates right now. Inflation is proving to be quite sticky (throwback to "inflation is transitory") and plenty of investors are waiting on the sidelines to invest as soon as rates drop. A soft landing seems to be inefficient at getting inflation back to 2%. We're seemingly stuck between in a rock and a hard place.
Those who are optimistic about the economy for the upcoming years, what's your thesis?
