No fancy business, this is a dumb and simple thesis based on very likely outcomes expected during the next earnings call:
- On track to surpass their guidance in cost cuts and free cash flow "Bob Iger during Morgan Stanley Q&A".
- Despite tough comps from Disney's 50th and rising labor costs, both domestic and international parks are expected to post double-digit growth in operating income "Bob Iger during Morgan Stanley Q&A".
- Sizable sub gains in all three streamers; D+, Hulu and ESPN+. Charter added its subs to D+ and ESPN+ this quarter. Taylor Swift's film set a record for music films and it dropped 2 weeks before the quarter wraps up, so these subs won't have time to churn and will be counted entirely. Shogun is also breaking viewership records on Hulu. Disney's guidance is for 6 million subs gained during this quarter, but it could easily be more.
- According to Ampere Analytics, Disney's streaming sans sports should reach profitability during this quarter, much sooner than what Disney claims. Seeing the trajectory during the last quarter and the gains made during this quarter, that sounds within reach.
