Canadian Solar is down 32% YTD as of 4/5/24. Wanted to hear how others are feeling towards the stock. Recently released March update looks promising with a return to 16%-18% gross margin, and I like the overall strategy of focusing on improving margins at the expense of slower revenue growth. Still feel like there has to be a glut of solar panel supply in the market partially due to the continued poor economics of residential solar. Not sure how the utility/commercial demand is currently which is significantly more important to CSIQ.
Thesis: Canadian Solar outlook looks to be improving from last couple of quarters. If gross margins comes in at 16.5% or higher and revenue meets expectations, I reasonably expect a rally from $17.30 to $23, representing 32% price appreciation. For upcoming Q1, I want to see positive net income and higher OCF than Q4.
Disclosure: Have been scaling into a position in CSIQ since February. Down 20%. Contemplating buying more and lowering cost average.
Sharing this to spark conversation around CSIQ and the Solar industry in general.
