Hi everyone,
For those also investing in Europe.
ATOS SE (ATOS on French stock exchange) is a global leader in digital transformation with big financial issues.
The financial situation of ATOS is, imo, worse then they pretend.
1) A margin that will only increase by 42% (estimate of ATOS)
Atos hope to increase their margin from 7,6% in 2024 to 10,80% in 2025, so an increase of only 42%.
2) A capital raise of 600 million EUR as half suggested in the presentation of 08 april 2024, will not solve the financial problem, because:
– their debt level and their expiration date are really problematic (3650 million EUR with expiration date between now and end 2025)
– they have to more than double their EBITDA or reduce their debt (4850 million EUR in total) by more than 50% to avoid reaching the BB threshold!
If ATOS can for instance increase their EBITDA by 50% (remember they estimate they can increase their margin by 42%), then ATOS will have to reduce their total debt by more than 25% (let's take 28%)!
28% of 4850 million EUR = 1358 million EUR!
So yes, a capital raise of only 600 million EUR (that ATOS could announce in coming days/weeks) will not be enough to solve their financial issues…
Fyi, the market cap of Atos today (1.9165 EUR/share) is only 213 million EUR…
A capital raise of 600 million EUR or more vs a market cap of 213 million EUR today.
3) It's going to be 3 long months for ATOS shareholders with a lot of uncertainty…
Here is the link to their presentation of april 2024: https://atos.net/en/2024/press-release_2024_04_02/presentation-of-the-parameters-of-atos-refinancing-framework
This isn't financial advice. Please do your own DD before investing.
Cheers
