This is a good news for coming weekend! Recession is unfavourable and will receive downvotes \~
​
**Recession fears evaporate in new forecast of top economists**
[https://www.marketwatch.com/story/recession-fears-evaporate-in-new-forecast-of-top-economists-4dbfebd4](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/recession-fears-evaporate-in-new-forecast-of-top-economists-4dbfebd4)
*Fears of a recession in the first half of 2024 have melted away like the snow in most of the country this winter, according to a new forecast of top economists released Friday.*
*Economists now see only a 17.3% chance of negative growth of real gross domestic product in the first quarter. That’s down sharply from a 40.9% chance in the previous survey. In normal times, the risk of a recession is around 15%, economists say.*
*In the April-June quarter, economists now see a 23.9% chance of a negative quarter of GDP growth, down from 40.2%. For the last two quarters of the year, the odds are now about 25%, down from above 24% in the prior survey.*
*The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts, began in 1968. It is based on 34 economists.*
*This quarter’s survey paints a picture of a soft landing.*
*The forecasters predict the economy will expand at a 2.1% annual rate in the January-March quarter, up from their expectation of 0.8% in the last survey.*
*On an annual average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to increase 2.4% in 2024. That’s up 0.7 percentage points from the prior survey.*
*The labor market will stay strong, according to the survey, with the unemployment rate finishing the year at 4%, up from 3.7% in January. That’s down from a forecast of 4.2% in the prior survey.*
*Inflation, as measured by the Fed’s personal consumption expenditure index, will continue to moderate, ending the year just above the Fed’s target at a 2.1% annual rate. That’s down from the prior forecast of 2.4%.*
