“Go woke go broke” contrarian strategy

Note: this is not meant to be a post about politics whatsoever, I’m just describing how certain companies seem to be perceived online, and the effect it has on their stock prices.

I’m sure you are all familiar with the idea of investing in the opposite of whatever you see on investing (or gambling) subreddits. (maybe you remember the multitude of highly upvoted “why should I ever buy SPY over ARKK?” posts in 2020 and 2021)

A promising strategy seems to be going long on a stock whenever it is at a local price low due to receiving a shitstorm for being “too woke” by loud online communities. Examples I can think of.

Disney $DIS: derided as being “too woke” for a long time. Picking the release of Little Mermaid as the recent height of the discourse, the stock was at 90 on May 26, 2023. Since then it is up 37.6%, outperforming the S&P’s 24.4% gain.

Target $TGT: New York Post wrote an article about them being too woke on August 17, 2023. Since then Target is up 37.6% compared to 19.6% for the index.

Google $GOOG: faced a “woke” backlash due to their AI at the end of February. Since then, the stock is up 12.5% compared to 1.5% for the Nasdaq.

What do you think about going long companies that have a dip in share price based on conservative backlash? Companies currently facing backlash for being too woke:

Nike $NKE for putting a purple St Georges Cross on their apparel

Tyson Foods $TSN for supposedly wanting to hire asylum seekers for their factories (although Tyson has denied this outright)

Starbucks $SBUX for perceived hiring discrimination/DEI hiring policies. Interestingly Starbucks is also facing extremely vocal boycott calls from pro-Palestinian groups online, despite having no stores in Israel or any connection to the country whatsoever. I’m watching this one closely since all their financial metrics seem very good but the stock hasn’t done too well, potentially because of the bad publicity from both sides.



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