Currently the stock is being propped up because of supply and demand. There are a lot of people short the stock (over 4 million shares short) and they want to cover. They don't have to cover, short interest rates are 30bps and there are millions more shares available to short, but they want to. There are also not many people who want to sell them shares because most hedge funds (except for Praetorian Capital) have likely already sold what they own.
However, there are company insiders. CEO Greg Roberts owns 1.55 million shares. This February after earnings he sold 28,000 shares at an average price of $26.15. Then there is Mike Wittmeyer (co-founder of JM Bullion). He has been selling chunks for years. Most recently he sold 45,000 shares this February at about $26.17 a share. He has 395,000 shares left to sell. Lastly there is Jess Ravich, who smartly bought 20,000 shares at $25.63 on 2/27/24. He has 144,000 shares and is also probably looking to cash out. In addition, there are many other insiders who have large quantities of shares (1 million+ more than these 3) but didn't transact them this February so I won't mention them here. You can see all of this data at this link:
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/AMRK/insider-trades/
The blackout period for insiders to sell shares opens in 2 trading days. I am almost certain that those who sold in the $25-27 range will aggressively dump as many shares as possible at current prices. Why? Because AMRK's fundamental case has deteriorated massively since this February with precious metals premiums contunuing to remain "low". See my data I compiled about that here (which led me to predict this quarter's disastrous miss just last week on this sub):
As you can see, premiums on AMRK's minted products barely climbed at all throughout all of April and as of this writing they haven't gone up anymore since April 29th, either. Insiders know this. They know that the next quarter will be another "disaster" quarter unless some black swan changes the supply/demand equation for physical PMs. They will sell their shares.
If you are still long AMRK, I strongly advise you to get out now. Don't walk, run. Insiders will be more than happy to sell you any quantity of shares at the inflated price of $38 in just 2 days. Even if spreads miraculously turned around and it looked like the company would average $1.50 EPS years–investors would much prefer investing in risk free government bonds or high yield money market accounts and making 5% a year risk free than they would prefer to buy a share of AMRK at $30 ($1.50 EPS is 5% of $30). Therefore any fundamental case for the stock is completely wrecked now and a fair price for the company would be in the $25-30 range.
I am doubling down on my shorts. What are your moves?
