AMPX is a battery company making new silicon anode batteries primarily for drone, EVTOL, and other extended flight research/practice applications, with an extensive moat of patents and research. By all accounts the tech works, the batteries offer double the flight time, far more instantaneous power, fast charging time, etc. and they have contracts with the US military, Airbus, and a bunch of other companies worldwide. They can't produce enough to meet demand, so they have been loading up on debt and running on negative earnings to get a big 1GW/hr factory built in Colorado, planned to begin operating in 2025 and turn the company profitable. Their clients, including the US military, have practically been holding their hand to help get this factory built.
They plan to branch out into EV eventually, but the tech isn't ready yet. Right now it works well for drones and the world is burning through and building up stockpiles of drones, so they're focusing on drones.
IF they are successful, it would be a very lucrative growth play in the coming years. It's a gamble with risk of permanent loss, but there isn't anything apparently fishy about the company's product, contracts, tech, or management, EXCEPT:
The stock has been tanking, largely due to massive insider selling from the company's president and other executives. It reached $1.66 yesterday to around $150M market cap, down from over $11 after its IPO. They posted $9M of revenue last earnings and -0.10 EPS. Shareholders are, naturally, extremely unhappy about this. If the price goes below $1, it will be delisted from the NYSE. Amprius are conspicuously silent about this, besides the mandatory disclosures.
How hairy does this look to you? What do you make of a company allowing itself to get so close to being delisted? What would you need to see to consider buying a stock like this?
