MSFT and AAPL are overvalued and overbought, Wallstreet is expecting too much from AI.

I got to try Microsoft's copilot this week and i have to say i was underwhelmed by what it had to offer. It just felt like an enhancement for windows with more features, nothing ground breaking. This wasn't a major leap in technology like going from fax's to email. Tech companies releasing new (free)upgrades and new (free)products is like Nike releasing a new pair of shoes, just something else to add to the lineup. Will it make SOME peoples jobs more efficient, yes. Is it applicable for most people, i have to say no. Nike makes shoes for athletes but maybe 1-2% actually use them for what its intended for. Lets say a company has 20,000 employees, of those employees how many need it for their role or will using it on a daily basis? Maybe 90 % wont. If that's accurate a company will only pay for the 10% that need a user license.

If chat GPT was never released all the mag 7 earnings would still be about the same without it.

Now for the overvalued and overbought. MSFT has a PE of 40, one of the highest of all the mag 7. Your paying $40 for every dollar they earn. Based on their current AI stack im not sure they will be able to beat the current expectations in a big way consistently. MSFT is not NVDA. NVDA chips cost $30k+ each, as much as a low end Tesla. Copilot has a free version and the pro version is $20-$30 per user. Most people at companies are not using this and im not sure this will add to the bottom line very much. That means most of the earnings growth will have to come from the cloud business, admittedly the cloud business has been growing at double digits for a long time but there is also a lot of competition in cloud space, at some point growth will slow as cap ex spending slows. The other thing to consider is what AI costs for these companies. The GPU's are expensive, Data storage is expensive and the energy demand from AI use is very very expensive. At some point AI use, especially from free users is going to eat into the profit margins.

MSFT right now is like buying a over priced Cadillac, yeah it drives nice but its overpriced.

AAPL is also overvalued at 35x earnings. Adding chatGPT to a smartphone and enhancing siri isn't worth the current valuation. The goggles were a bust. No new products on the horizon just same stuff just newer versions. Apple isn't the glamorous high growth tech company it once was. Iphones sales are falling off in China and this will definitely show in the next couple quarters of earnings. Its the Nike of tech stocks. People aren't spending $100 for shoes they certainly wont spend $900+ for a phone. I wouldn't be surprised if Buffet starts to offload shares at this PE ratio.

That fourth industrial revolution is not happening today or tomorrow, we are too early. This is going to take some time.

I agree with Ken Griffin on this, the current AI products on the market are not the revolution many are hoping for, they're mediocre at best. There's too much spending and too much free products for this to add to any company's bottom line. The real winners are semi's, data storage and anything surrounding it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/01/ken-griffin-says-hes-not-convinced-ai-will-replace-human-jobs-in-near-future.html

There is one area that will benefit astronomically from AI but that will come a bit later.



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